Independent study highlights costs of Alberta separation

Independent study highlights costs of Alberta separation

Published 1:46 pm Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Alberta separating from Canada would result in significant short-term costs and long-term uncertainty, according to an independent report released by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

The report, commissioned by the Government of Alberta, examines potential economic and financial impacts of Alberta separating from Canada, and considers two hypothetical scenarios to give Albertans a sense of the costs associated with separation:

— A “smooth” scenario in which negotiations with Canada are quick and favourable to Alberta.

— A “difficult” scenario in which negotiations are protracted and unfavourable to Alberta.

In both scenarios, the report shows the short-term impacts of potential separation would result in “significant economic disruption and costs for Albertans,” the Government of Alberta stated in a media release on Sept. 16.

The report outlines that the cost of establishing a new country could range from $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years following separation. These costs are in addition to impacts on economic growth and Alberta’s fiscal position, which is explored in the report.

“It has been a great opportunity for the school to help inform Albertans on such a critical issue,” said Martha Hall Findlay, director of University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

“From the start, we were afforded full independence and academic freedom with this project, which was successful under a compressed deadline. The work includes some of the most comprehensive economic and fiscal data available, analyzed objectively by our team of experts led by Dr. Tim Sargent.”

Under the “difficult” scenario, limits on trade and market access could create lasting economic and fiscal challenges for both Alberta and Canada. Even after 20 years, employment could be nearly five per cent lower and Alberta’s economy more than 16 per cent smaller than if the province remained in Canada. Despite higher taxes, the government could face an ongoing annual budget deficit of more than $30 billion.

In the “smooth” scenario, Alberta may be able to maintain access to major trade markets, expand resource development and deliver some government services more efficiently. The report cautions, however, that any potential economic recovery could take many years following the disruption of separation and would depend on very specific conditions, including sustained high oil prices, that could not be guaranteed through negotiations.

An advisory panel, chaired by Dr. Jack Mintz, was appointed to review the report and prepare an independent assessment of the findings. The panel’s work adds a broader range of perspectives to the analysis, ensuring Albertans are equipped with the facts.

“The panel concurs that separation results in short run economic costs for Alberta for uncertain net benefits in the longer run. However, we also stress that Canadians should be aware that Alberta’s separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well,” said Mintz.

This October, there will be a referendum where Albertans will be asked the question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”